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United States
The business cycle troughed in the US in April when 95% of Americans were ordered to stay-at-home. The subsequent economic re-opening coupled with historic fiscal and monetary support will drive a strong recovery in 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
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United States
Europe’s fiscal policy response to the pandemic was about half the size of that in the U.S. Europe is more exposed to global trade than the U.S. and so will be a beneficiary of a rebound in Chinese demand.
Source: Bloomberg
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China
The world’s second-largest economy was the only major economy to grow in 2020, albeit at the slowest annual pace since 1976. Growth is projected to pick up to around 8.5% in 2021, led by exports and strengthening consumption and investment.
Source: Bloomberg
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Japan
Japan’s recovery will likely lag other developed economies. Despite recording just 2–3% of the number of cases in the US or Europe, the weak bounce back in consumption suggests the virus has left more scarring in Japan. A boost to spending and tourism will come from hosting the delayed Olympics in 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
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Australia
Pent up demand and the easing of restrictions on domestic tourism, hospitality, and retail are likely to support growth. Forward guidance from both the Reserve Bank and the Federal Government suggests monetary and fiscal stimulus will remain in place for several more years at least.
Source: Bloomberg
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United Kingdom
A no-deal Brexit crisis was averted but the UK still faces the biggest reset of an advanced economy’s trade relations since World War II. Growth is expected to rebound as the UK finished 2020 further below pre-crisis growth levels than any other G7 economy.
Source: Bloomberg
