-
Overview
After many false dawns, robotics is about to have its moment in the sun. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has called it the next wave of A.I.. Jeff Bezos thinks we are at the beginning of a golden age for automation and robotics. Elon Musk believes we will eventually have more humanoid robots than humans.
Estimates suggest the robotics industry represents a global revenue opportunity worth $24 trillion by 2030. The use of robots is expanding rapidly – from an estimated 354 million in use today to an estimated 1.3 billion by 2035 and 4.1 billion by 2050.
The growth is being driven by innovation coming from new technology such as AI, a reduction in costs and payback periods, and a broadening out in industrial applications.
—
$24 trillion robotics industry potential opportunity by 2030.
ARK Investments
—
Robot unit numbers forecast to reach 4.1 billion by 2050
Source: Bloomberg
—
4.1 billion – Forecast for the number of robots in circulation by 2050.
Citi
—
Robotics historically faced many headwinds – high R&D costs, expensive prototyping and manufacturing, and safety issues. Recent enhancements in AI have helped change that. Tasks such as seeing, learning, moving, and taking instruction, all standalone tasks, can now be performed simultaneously. Improved reasoning and dexterity and edge computing means robots can navigate complex environments and make real-time autonomous decisions.
The payback period for humanoids varies widely and depend on initial cost, productivity and hours of operation. Goldman Sachs estimate a two-year payback period by 2025-26 for a humanoid robot working 20 hours a day, assuming a base case unit cost of US$250,000.
Falling average cost curves of industrial robots (US$)
Source: Statista
—
1.9 billion – Projected number of fully autonomous vehicles by 2050.
Citi
—
Improved dexterity in robotics has significantly impacted the healthcare sector. The DaVinci surgical robot has performed over 10 million procedures globally and reports 40% fewer complications, shorter patient recovery times and over $22,000 in savings per case because of fewer complications.
Industrial cleaning robots are in their early stages of development, unlike home cleaning robots. Skyline Robotics’ Ozmo, an autonomous skyscraper cleaning robot, makes 250 decisions per second regarding pressure, movement, efficiency, and safety and can operate 24/7. All without risking human lives. It’s three times faster than traditional methods with a three-year payback period. With only 9% of the industry’s workforce under 30, robotics offers a solution to labour shortages in this dangerous occupation, improving efficiency and productivity.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to scale rapidly due to AI improvements enhancing safety and decision-making. Fully autonomous vehicles are projected to increase from 27 million currently to 1.9 billion by 2050, with consumer cost per mile dropping from $0.70 to $0.25 within a decade. The growth in robotaxis has the potential to significantly change urban transport with the most recent vehicles from Waymo having a 500 metre detection range.
Drones have seen wide adoption across a number of industries including construction, agriculture, real estate, oil and gas, utilities, manufacturing and logistics. The enterprise drone market is forecast to grow from $16 billion today to $29 billion by 2030.
Global defence spending is rising, with the US allocating over US$900 billion in 2023 and EU spending growing by 10%. Anduril Industries, a private company which develops autonomous defence systems for the US government, recently raised $1.5 billion at a $14 billion valuation. Their products include unmanned aerial systems that operate autonomously, process real-time data, and provide actionable intelligence for defence applications.
—
Much of the development in robotics is taking place in private markets. Companies such as Sanctuary AI, Figure, Mantis, Agility Robotics and 1X are all forging partnerships with public companies like Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft to help develop robots faster and with more capabilities.
Military drone spending is expected to top $45 billion by 2030
Source: GlobalX
—
