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WEEKEND LADDER

A summary of the week’s results

WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

- The RBA Minutes for April conveyed a message that the central bank will give time to see the results of the latest macroprudential measures that are designed to take some of the heat out of the housing market. - Political risks have returned in …

WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

- Food and energy price inflation are considered ‘non-core’ in terms of central bank policies but have a substantial impact on household …

WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

- The second quarter of the calendar year may see economic momentum ease back and challenge the high expectations for growth. This is likely to be a …

WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 31.03.2017

- What will take US growth higher? A bout of consumer spending or business investment, or both? This path will determine interest rates and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 24.03.2017

- Healthcare costs are a universal issue. As governments and individuals grapple with the options, a host of new investments can be expected to …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 17.03.2017

- Inflation in most countries has increased, not only due to energy.  However, the rate appears to be levelling off and without wage rate …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 10.03.2017

- The local housing debate is valid, given the economic risks. - US economic decisions are vastly complex and it is worthwhile being mindful of …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 03.03.2017

- China is likely to portray a stable, but progressive, path for its economy at this weekend’s Congress. Dealing with excess capacity and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 24.02.2017

- Economic momentum continues to improve; Europe being the standout at the moment. Talk on monetary policy in that region is likely to become …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 17.02.2017

- The Australian labour market is a key reason for the subdued domestic outlook. Part time work is rising and limits household spending.  - …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 10.02.2017

- We have summarised a useful paper on why the Australian cash rate will be lower than before and considered the investment implications. - …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 03.02.2017

-  A large trade surplus, complements of commodities, has put a floor in the AUD and points to a possible higher-than-expected mid year GDP, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 27.01.2017

- Inflation has plateaued and basing effects will see it rise in coming months. Yet, price pressure from higher demand looks to be some way off. …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 20.01.2017

- Australian employment trends show little signs of improving in the near term. Higher part time employment undermines income security and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 13.01.2017

-  US economic growth is forecast to pick up modestly in 2017. It may be 2018 before any policy changes from the new administration have any …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 06.01.2017

-  Expect more politics and policy shifts through 2017. -  Early data shows that economic momentum picked up into the end of 2016. …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 16.12.2016

-  The Fed has lifted interest rates for the just the second time in the current cycle and is now forecasting an additional three hikes in 2017. …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 09.12.2016

-  The headline of negative third quarter Australian GDP was largely dismissed as an anomaly given the boost to come from higher commodity …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Weekend Ladder 02.12.2016

Both China and India enact structural changes to their financial systems. While the repercussions are largely local, the reshaping of these economics …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 25.11.2016

It is hard for the citizens of the south eastern states to feel the economic glow of higher commodity prices. The transmission mechanism of resource …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 18.11.2016

•  US data clearly aligns towards a rate rise and debate now turns to the number in 2017. •  The Australian labour market …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 11.11.2016

•  The focus this week was, unsurprisingly, on the wide-ranging economic and investment consequences of Trump’s surprise …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 04.11.2016

•  Australian retail sales perked up, though the trend is undermined by price momentum rather than volume. Trade data was also better, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 28.10.2016

No economic data is ever as simple as it seems. The headline CPI for the September quarter was stronger than the market consensus at 1.3% (versus an …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 21.10.2016

The direction of the oil price potentially signals two transitions. If oil prices rise, so too will inflation and in turn, this will have a …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 14.10.2016

The global scenario of lower for longer interest rates, no recession but low growth and inflation looks to be the textbook outcome for this year and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 07.10.2016

After much discussion on the incapacity of central banks to shift the dial on economic growth, they are now facing retribution from their political …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 30.09.2016

Investors are increasingly aware that low interest rates will have a significant impact on long term portfolio returns.  Negative sovereign …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 23.09.2016

Even the experts struggled to paint a coherent picture on the potential impact from the latest efforts by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Rather than a …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 16.09.2016

•       The conversation next week will turn to the FOMC meeting and, of course, the football finals. • &…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 09.09.2016

An air of suspended disbelief hung around the release of the Australian GDP June quarter data. The promising headline of 3.3% annualised growth is …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 02.09.2016

An unexpected jump in Australian July building approvals barely moved financial markets. One problem was the mix, with free standing housing down 0.6%…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 26.08.2016

In the everlasting search for some formula to push economic growth higher, old ideas and new thought bubbles emerge. The oldest idea is fiscal …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 19.08.2016

A week of sunshine makes the weather a starting point. The Bureau of Meteorology reports that the negative event in the Indian Ocean Dipole, which …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 12.08.2016

A week of messy and largely directionless economic data gave little sense of any change in pattern. US productivity is struggling, with real output …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 05.08.2016

Outside Australia the main economic event of the week was the widely expected easing by the Bank of England (BoE). The cash rate was reduced from 0.5%…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 29.07.2016

That the world of central banks is making every effort to get prices up is a phenomenon that tests the sensibility of those quite accustomed to cost …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 22.07.2016

The local economic focus is on the inflation data out next week. Universally, there is an expectation of a low print for the June quarter of around 0.…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 15.07.2016

The Australian Labour Force survey (June 2016) suggests ‘steady as she goes’ economic growth. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.8%, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 08.07.2016

Have central banks run out of options? The role of quantitative easing was to stabilise and lower interest rates so that business and households …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 01.07.2016

One week later, a high level view would be that Brexit has hardly mattered. Global equity markets have settled back to daily moves typical of the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 24.06.2016

Britain’s decision to leave the European Union sent a wave of selling into equity markets and caused major movements in currency and bond …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 17.06.2016

The Fed has taken a back seat to the tightening Brexit vote over the last week, which would have been a consideration in deciding to leave interest …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 10.06.2016

The RBA surprised no one by leaving the cash rate at a record low of 1.75% after last month’s cut, although the lack of an easing tone was …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 03.06.2016

Australia’s first quarter GDP again surpassed expectations, with 1.1% growth for the three months and 3.1% over the last year. The chief …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 27.05.2016

Economic data releases were relatively light this week. Domestic construction for the March quarter gave a window into next week’s GDP figures. …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 20.05.2016

The RBA’s minutes confirmed that combatting weak inflation has gone to the forefront of the central bank’s mind. While other data series (…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 13.05.2016

It is hard to push a number of topics out of the limelight and housing is one recurring theme. Countries have quite distinct residential property …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 06.05.2016

Budgets can be viewed through a political lens, or within an economic framework, but rarely have much impact on financial markets. Deficit size and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 29.04.2016

Down, down, prices are down. Australian CPI fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year, taking the annual rate of inflation to 1.3%, touching on …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 22.04.2016

We are becoming accustomed to a weekly perusal of data that gives no particular sense of direction. US jobless claims fell, yet regional activity …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 15.04.2016

Locally, March unemployment registered a slight improvement to 5.7% (26,000 new jobs). The composition was less attractive, with 35,000 new part time …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 08.04.2016

There was little meaningful economic news out this week, leaving forecasters to reflect on the weak first quarter of the year and contemplate what …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 01.04.2016

This week economists scrambled to put forward their case for the AUD exchange rate. Foreign exchange is perhaps the best definition of the ‘two …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 25.03.2016

With the recent comments on the purpose of superannuation, the spotlight revolves back to the problem of global pension obligations for an ageing …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 18.03.216

Very few were expecting any change to the Federal Funds Rate following the monetary policy meeting in the US this week, although the focus was on the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 11.03.2016

The ECB both delivered and disappointed financial markets. The general view is that the announced package would do as much as could be expected to …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 04.03.2016

A surprisingly strong final quarter Australian GDP release and upward revision of Q3 took the annual economic growth rate for 2015 to 3%. The …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 26.02.2016

While the RBA does not specifically note wages in its deliberations, it may be encouraged by the low growth in labour costs, combined with the fall …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 19.02.2016

Trend setting economic news remains light. Locally, labour force data showed a fall in employment in January taking the unemployment rate up …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 12.02.2016

Economic news and data releases were smothered by the moves in bank debt markets. We elaborate on those in our fixed income section. The economic …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 05.02.2016

Watching and waiting. This week gave no indication that economic trends have bottomed. Rather, central banks all took on a dovish tone. Following …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 29.01.2016

With the headline inflation rate coming in at 2.1% for 2015, economists have turned to minutia in analysing possible trends. Tradeable goods …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 22.01.2016

In another volatile week in investment markets, economic news was largely unhelpful. Even 6.9% GDP growth for China in 2015 was not good enough, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 15.01.2016

Deviating from our usual commentary on economic data, this week we will focus on the potential causes of investment market volatility. To set the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 08.01.2016

The perception that China is a command economy does not resonate in its financial sector. A messy combination of attempted regulation and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 18.12.2015

Perhaps the most protracted, anticipated event of the year, the Fed rate rise, is over. The debate will now be on the timing and extent of rate rises …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 11.12.2015

Hot on the heels of an encouraging NAB Business Survey came the labour report, suggesting that in the past two months some 125,000 new jobs have been …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 04.12.2015

Australia’s GDP growth continues to track along at a respectable, but hardly stellar, pace. The national accounts showed quarterly GDP growth …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 27.11.2015

In one of the lightest weeks of economic news, even Governor Stevens of the RBA told an audience to ‘chill out over Christmas’. One …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 20.11.2015

A dearth of any meaningful economic data or trend in the past week has opened the door for reports on what 2016 holds for the financial world. More …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 13.11.2015

Sceptics supped on humble soup as the Australian labour force data beat expectations by a mile. In October, full time employment rose by 58.6k and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 06.11.2015

The RBA members have been busy, not by surprising the market on Cup day, but with a series of presentations. Philip Lowe (Deputy Governor) caused a …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 30.10.2015

More babies from a 2 child policy is unlikely to have any impact on China in the next few years, but represents the shift in attitude that is widely …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 23.10.2015

The prediction of an El Nino event will have mixed fortunes for Australia’s agricultural sector. Unlike hard commodities, many soft commodity …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 16.10.2015

Another few surveys show that our spirits are lifting into summer. Business confidence picked up, with the expectations of improved government …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 09.10.2015

The RBA released a paper ‘Modelling the Australian Dollar’ where its economists discuss the issue of some benchmark against which the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 02.10.2015

The good news is that the Australian housing market is showing clear signs of peaking, allowing the RBA more flexibility in its monetary policy. The …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 25.09.2015

Outside of financial markets, the data represents as quite settled. For some time now, the US trends hint at a weakish manufacturing sector, partly …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 18.09.2015

Post the FOMC meeting the question is whether the Fed has real concerns, or merely biding its time, preferring not to change rates against the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 11.09.2015

The longest wait in recent financial times comes to a possible conclusion next week with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 04.09.2015

As we tiptoed our way past a technical recession (two negative quarters required), the reality of low economic growth becomes more transparent. …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 28.08.2015

With the noise from the reaction to trends in China abating as the week progressed, market attention turned back to the US. We are always mindful …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 21.08.2015

The brightest news on a dour week was from the US where a series of data releases indicated that the manufacturing weakness has abated (Philadelphia …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 14.08.2015

China’s foreign exchange movements overrode most other financial market news this week. It’s worth briefly reflecting on the background …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 07.08.2015

The focus from the RBA meeting was less on the cash rate and more so the language around the currency, which has seen the AUD pop up in the last few …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 31.07.2015

The US Commerce Department estimate of Q2 GDP growth was 2.3%, a decent acceleration in pace from Q1, but below the 2.7% economic analysts had …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 24.07.2015

The US economy continues its somewhat mixed tone. The Philadelphia Nonmanufacturing Survey eased in July with the trend to weakening capital spending …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 17.07.2015

Contrary to most expectations, China produced 7% GDP growth for Q2 smack on the target for the fiscal year. Cynics will readily point to the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 10.07.2015

As if Greece was not enough to occupy the attention of financial markets, the Chinese stock market made history in its volatility and the measures …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 03.07.2015

Into a new financial year, we have checked the four major banks economic forecasts for direction and points of difference. GDP FY16 growth forecasts …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 26.06.2015

The US economy looks likely to register close to 3% annualised GDP growth for Q2. Any signs the rate of momentum is fading may see the Fed’s …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 19.06.2015

Greece and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting dominated global news in the week. With the inevitable end point to the discussions …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 12.06.2015

After a week of grumbling on house prices and falling confidence, the labour market stepped up with a much better than expected April unemployment …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 05.06.2015

First quarter GDP for Australia was reported at 0.9%, or an annualised run rate of 2.3%. At face value, the number was as decent as could be expected,…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 29.05.2015

For those who do not live and breathe financial issues, the movement in bond yields across the globe (which we have referred to in past weeklies) is …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 22.05.2015

US data refuses to consistently align itself with the general view that the economy is tracking along fine. Following on from last week’s fall …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 15.05.2015

Bond markets remained uneasily in the spotlight, with daily movements larger than normal. Commentators reflected on the causes and repercussions. An …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 08.05.2015

Europe has perked up again after a soft patch. Spain is now powering ahead based on the PMI release this week and confirmed by fund managers who have …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 01.05.15

After a weak Q1 (0.2%) growth, it is critical for US data to improve to support the near unanimous opinion that US rates will rise later this year. …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 24.04.2015

Few countries indulge in weekend financial market events as much as China. After a late Friday scare on possible margin lending restrictions, the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 17.04.2015

The IMF’s biannual World Economic Outlook confirmed some trends that we have discussed in recent months. While the US is still forecast to be …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 10.04.2015

Given the recent relentless commentary on monetary policy, we will restrict this week to the headlines. The RBA held rates, yet the consensus is …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 03.04.2015

Signs of a slowing in housing credit and a fall in building approvals would be welcomed by the RBA on the eve of the monthly meeting. Based on …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 27.03.2015

The RBA Financial Stability Review once again dwelt on the property market, extending its concerns to commercial offices in Brisbane and Perth, in …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 20.03.2015

Central banks retain their rock star status (for the financial sector) with markets hanging off every utterance and then debating the possible …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 13.03.2015

Economic trends out of China continue to worry analysts. Given that the Chinese New Year can fall in either January or February, it is customary to …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 06.03.2015

A slew of releases did little to change the local perspective. Against expectations the RBA did not cut the official interest rate. Yet the market …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 27.02.2015

Wage growth in Australia is annualising 2.5%, the lowest nominal rate in 16 years, but still comfortably positive in real terms. Low wage momentum …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 20.02.2015

This week we will restrain economic commentary to absorb the large amount of local corporate reporting and activity. A summary of selected economic …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 13.02.2015

The small business survey in the US delivered a similar message on government policy to that we cited last week on the NAB business outlook, but had …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 06.02.2015

The big economic news is now out of the way, at least for the time being. Surprising most economists, the RBA elected to cut rates by 25bp and left …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 30.01.2015

The themes of the present economic debates have largely consolidated into two areas. Firstly, can the deflation risk be overcome and what will be the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 23.01.2015

The long awaited event of ECB easing is upon us at last. Rather than debating the ‘if, what and when’, it is now the consequences that …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 16.01.2015

China’s trade data saw its surplus continue to grow. Exports rose by 9.7% in December and 6.1% for the year overall. Imports fell by 2.4% in …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 09.01.2015

As is often the case, the bond market summarises the evolution of the Australian economy over the past two months. Bond yields have fallen to all-…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 19.12.2014

We now know – this week’s FOMC meeting seems to confirm that the Fed will raise rates in the second half of the year, as long as …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 12.12.2014

Last week’s Australian GDP data, which suggests the domestic economy (excluding the export sector) is in decline in real terms, has flowed …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 05.12.2014

Global PMIs (Purchasing Managers Indexes), indicative of the trends in the momentum in the manufacturing sector, have been edging down for some …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 28.11.2014

The debate on the likely growth in 2015 for the Australian economy is heating up. While the consensus is still around 3% GDP growth, a touch better …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 21.11.2014

Following on from our comments last week on Asian economies, Indonesia announced a significant change in its fuel subsidies which has been growing in …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 14.11.2014

With the release of Australian housing credit data and followed by dwelling prices, the inevitable commentary on the risks associated with housing …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 07.11.2014

Australian retail sales edged up in September, with household goods leading the charge. The iPhone release and flow on effect from housing activity …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 31.10.2014

Europe started the week with the release of the ECB 2014 Comprehensive Assessment of banks across the region. Of the 130 banks under analysis, 24 …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 24.10.2014

Is this bad news? Earlier this week, China reported GDP growth for the third quarter of 2014 at 7.3%. This was the slowest growth rate since 2009 but …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 17.10.2014

The noisier sections of the media like to suggest that the current malaise in investment markets is due to geopolitical ructions or even concerns on …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 10.10.2014

Mixed signals from the US saw investment markets rotate on a daily basis through the week. While the focus is on equity indexes, the bond market was …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 03.10.2014

A modest level of building approvals for August, skewed heavily towards multi-unit developments did little to detract from the growing expectation …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 26.09.2014

Economic news was relatively light this week, allowing the RBA to again put the housing market in the headlines with the release of its biannual …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 19.09.2014

With the release of detailed labour force statistics, the cumulative growth in employment across various industries can be illustrated, also removing …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 12.09.2014

With the iron ore prices drifting away, the coming months will be important to see if this is seasonal or secular. China’s August iron ore …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 05.09.2014

Some weeks ago at the Jackson Hole summit, Mario Draghi of the ECB indicated a clear intention to providefurther monetary support to the European&…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 29.08.2014

US data had a positive tone for the week, especially consumer confidence, where the Conference Board Index hit a post-recession high. In particular, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 22.08.2014

RBA Governor Glen Stevens’ appearance at Parliament confirmed the likelihood that interest rates would be on hold for quite some time. The …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 15.08.2014

Given the focus on profit results at this time, we will restrict our economic commentary to a few topics rather than present the roll of data out …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 08.08.2014

As human nature dictates, any data that reinforces a view is naturally spot on, whereas if it does not, the data must be at fault. The unexpected …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 01.08.2014

In a notable number of circumstances, the economic pattern is not following the textbook outcome. With great expectations, the current Japanese …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 25.07.2014

While the CPI came in at the higher end of the RBA range and the A$ strengthened in response on the assumption a rate cut is increasingly unlikely, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 18.07.2014

Domestically, economic news was fairly light, and thus July’s RBA Minutes captured much of the attention. The minutes reaffirmed the view of …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 11.07.2014

Tentative signs are emerging that the Australian economy is very slowly moving on from its autumn weather and budget related hiatus. ANZ job ads …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 04.07.2014

We will use this half way mark of the calendar year and end of our financial year to reflect on some of the trends of the past year which have had a …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 27.06.2014

Local economic news was light. A number of labour force indicators did nothing to move the dial, suggesting employment conditions were stable, yet …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 20.06.2014

Given the narrowing probability of any interest rate move in the foreseeable future, the RBA will run out of words in which it can tell the market …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 13.06.2014

If the winner of the World Cup is predicted by strengthening economic conditions, the UK would be a clear favourite. This week’s …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 06.06.2014

Australia recorded GDP growth of 1.1% for the first quarter of the calendar year, taking the annualised growth rate to 3.5%. This robust headline …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 30.05.2014

US data was, on balance, better than expected. Durable goods orders were up 0.8% in April, house prices rose by 1.2%, and indicative of the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 23.05.14

Unsurprisingly, both the Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer survey and the ANZ Morgan index of consumer confidence showed a sharp fall in the week, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 16.5.14

Naturally the budget took centre stage. As has become the norm, 'leaks' beforehand seem to be there to test the water and to prepare for 'challenging'…
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 9.5.14

Debate on the budget will continue to occupy centre stage over these weeks. Second guessing the economic consequences have kept economists busy and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 2.5.2014

Australian credit growth nudged up in the month to register a 4.4% increase for the year. However, the majority of growth is from housing loans (and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 17.4.2014

As noted in our Investment Themes report, the UK economy appears to be on the cusp of a decent recovery. Manufacturers reported the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 11.4.2014

Global equity markets have experienced a bout of volatility this week, with a sharp sell off in technology stocks overnight leading to a 3% decline …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 4.4.14

China’s official manufacturing PMI painted a rather conflicting story compared to that of the earlier HSBC reading. The HSBC index is more …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 28.3.2014

Across the world, the banking system has been under scrutiny in the past week.  In China, investors have shown concern on the ability of the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 21.3.2014

The monthly RBA meeting keep its tone aligned with recent statements, giving credence to the likelihood of an unchanged official rate for a few more …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 14.3.2014

Over the past weekend China released trade figures for February, showing a sharp fall in export growth, creating ongoing comment on the distortion of …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 7.3.2014

A wide mix of influences came through investment markets over the week. The political problems in Ukraine initially caused a bout of selling in …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 28.2.2014

In another week of relatively light economic news, the foreign exchange and commodity markets gained attention from some large moves, mostly …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 21.2.2014

Locally, the RBA was a firm ‘hold’ with its interest rate guidance. Unchanged rates through the year are based on balancing a modest …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 14.2.2014

Local sentiment indicators sent mixed and arguably unexpected signals. Businesses, where recent headlines would suggest are facing tough times, are …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 7.2.2014

As noted in our Investment Themes report, the UK economy appears to be on the cusp of a decent recovery. Manufacturers reported the strongest surge …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 31.1.2014

‘Are we at a turning point?’ This was the headline on the NAB business survey for December, with a big jump in business conditions. After …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 24.1.2014

The week started off with China’s GDP for Q4 and 2013. Growth of 7.7% was in line with expectations, yet investment markets are more concerned …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 17.1.2014

It was not only the weather that broke records. The S&P500 hit a high and the A$ fell to a three and a half year low, not exactly a record, but …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 10.1.2014

To summarise for those immersed in the holiday season, there has been relatively little economic data which would indicate a change in the pattern …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 20.12.2013

The big news is out of the way; the five year path of direct monetary intervention in the US is coming to a close. Well anticipated, it nonetheless …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 13.12.2013

The NAB survey of business sentiment gave a cautious read, with confidence remaining positive, but business conditions judged to be poor. The …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 6.12.2013

After a pause, data flow kept economists busy this week. Locally, it kicked off with retail sales and dwelling approvals for October. Both were …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 29.11.2013

Locally, construction work done in the Sept quarter came in above expectations at 2.7% and will nudge up the otherwise sluggish outlook for GDP …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 22.11.2013

Minutes from the monthly RBA meeting were interpreted from the eye of the beholder. Those with a view the economy was on the up, noted the comments …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 15.11.2013

The NAB business survey dampened some of the exuberance of the post election glow, with confidence falling back towards conditions. Nonetheless, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 8.11.2013

Retail sales for September gave heart to a potential lift in domestic activity with a 0.8% rise, taking growth for the year up 2.9%. Department and …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 1.11.2013

After a slow start to the week in terms of economic announcements, building approvals for September took a heartening jump. The predominant growth is …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 25.10.2013

Globally the US labour data attracts considerable attention as a possible guide on when the Fed may come closer to reducing monetary stimulus. The …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 18.10.2013

The subdued market reaction to the last minute deal on the US debt ceiling reflects the fact that investors had by and large assumed this would be …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 11.10.2013

At the brink it appears the US has for the moment stepped away from a grand economic experiment with deferral of the debt ceiling. The initial market …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 4.10.2013

The US budget brawl dominated the screens this week. From initial disbelief that the politicians would denigrate their already muddy status with the …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 27.9.2013

From taper to the US budget impasse, markets find a reason to stay skittish. When the uniform view is that the US battle of the budget will end in a …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 20.9.2013

Locally the RBA Board minutes are closely analysed for any nuance on their thinking. Hedging their bets would be a way of summarising the comments. …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 13.9.2013

A welcome bounce in business confidence as measured by the NAB survey may be a precursor to otherwise sluggish activity data. The fall in the A$, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 6.9.2013

The National Accounts showed that GDP rose by 2.6% in the year (0.6% in the Q) to June 2013. While edging ahead of some of the more dire estimates, …
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WEEKEND LADDER: ARCHIVE

Week Ending 30.8.2013

Local economic news has cranked up as we head into the release of the Q2 GDP data next Wednesday next week. Partial indicators hint at sluggish …
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