AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Our Views in Brief
The world will go from synchronised crisis in 2020 to synchronised recovery in 2021. Sizeable fiscal and monetary stimulus globally will feed into …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Extremis
2020 was a year of extremes. The COVID-19 crisis took the world’s economic, financial and social infrastructure to the limit. Economies fell …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Theme 1: The Income Challenge
Income investors have never had it so tough. Not only are the yields on everything from term deposits to bank stocks plumbing new lows, but …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Theme 2: COVID-Driven Structural Trends
The spread of COVID-19 across the world through this year had a dramatic impact on everyday life for many people as governments imposed …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Theme 3: Toward Net Zero
In December 2015, 55 countries accounting for 55% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions formally agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees …
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AGENDA
23.08.2021
Monthly Agenda August 2021 - Health Check - Australian Equities
A transition into mid cycle business cycle settings can result in sharp shifts in the drivers of the Australian equity market. With the market tilted …
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AGENDA
23.08.2021
Monthly Agenda August 2021 - Australian Equities
The ASX 200 has maintained a trend of strong earnings upgrades since late last year at an average of more than 3% per month. While recent upgrades …
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AGENDA
23.08.2021
Monthly Agenda August 2021 - International Equities
A sense of foreboding is spreading through emerging markets on concern that China’s slowing recovery and the fast-spreading Delta virus could …
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AGENDA
23.08.2021
Monthly Agenda August 2021 - Fixed Income
The currency market is beginning to show signs of growing risk aversion as investors debate a global economic slowdown. The top-performing G-10 …
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AGENDA
23.08.2021
Monthly Agenda August 2021 - Alternatives
The private debt asset class has now surpassed $1 trillion in AUM and continues to quickly approach the size of the public leveraged loan and HY bond …
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AGENDA
26.07.2021
Monthly Agenda July 2021 - Health Check - Global Equities
As the global economy passes through peak economic growth and peak policy stimulus the business cycle is transitioning from an early to a mid-cycle …
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AGENDA
26.07.2021
Monthly Agenda July 2021 - Australian Equities
The first half of 2021 has been notable for the significant rebound in earnings for the ASX 200, with aggregate earnings for the benchmark up an …
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AGENDA
26.07.2021
Monthly Agenda July 2021 - International Equities
Weaker commodity prices tend to be associated with a stronger US dollar and a weaker Australian dollar. Despite the increased weight to tech stocks …
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AGENDA
26.07.2021
Monthly Agenda July 2021 - Fixed Income
Economic growth in China is slowing, reflected in falling bond yields.
The June trade numbers sustain the theme of a robust trade surplus, but also …
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AGENDA
26.07.2021
Monthly Agenda July 2021 - Alternatives
Brent crude prices have fallen 9% since the beginning of the month as OPEC+ members finally agreed to production increases for all members of the …
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AGENDA
23.06.2021
Monthly Agenda June 2021 - Digital Assets - More Than Just Bitcoin
Bitcoin, blockchain and the world of crypto assets have gone from the obscure and complex realms only discussed by in the know techies to now …
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AGENDA
23.06.2021
Monthly Agenda June 2021 - Australian Equities
The outperformance of value stocks in the Australian market has faded in the last few months after five successive months of relative gains compared …
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AGENDA
23.06.2021
Monthly Agenda June 2021 - International Equities
The US Federal Reserve began the discussion of reducing the amount of monthly bond purchases this month. The move should not have been a surprise …
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AGENDA
23.06.2021
Monthly Agenda June 2021 - Fixed Income
The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to meet next month to decide whether to extend the three-year yield target on government bonds and on a third …
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AGENDA
23.06.2021
Monthly Agenda June 2021 - Alternatives
The commodities markets have pulled back in recent weeks as Chinese government entities roll out a swathe of measures aimed at cooling runaway …
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AGENDA
25.05.2021
Monthly Agenda May 2021 – Strategic asset allocation review
The purpose of the strategic asset allocation (SAA) is to be the foundation upon which the portfolio sits. The foundation needs to be stable, …
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AGENDA
25.05.2021
Monthly Agenda May 2021 - Alternatives
Copper prices continued their strong run breaking through the $10,000 mark to hit the highest levels in over a decade as supply disruptions in Chile …
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AGENDA
25.05.2021
Monthly Agenda May 2021 – Australian Equities
The earnings of the major banks rebounded in the recently completed half year reporting season. This was driven by a sharp recovery in bad debts, …
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AGENDA
25.05.2021
Monthly Agenda May 2021 - International Equities
Taiwan’s Taiex slid in April. An uptick in virus cases and heavy tech weighing were the spark, huge leveraged positions from retail stoked the …
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AGENDA
25.05.2021
Monthly Agenda May 2021 - Fixed Income
Duration is a key vulnerability for bond investors. Duration is a measure of how sensitive the price of a bond is to changes in interest rates. The …
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AGENDA
26.04.2021
Monthly Agenda April 2021 - We need to talk about China
The investment case for China has become more challenging over the past few months. We can point to three reasons for this. First, having led the …
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AGENDA
26.04.2021
Monthly Agenda April 2021 - Australian Equities
The return on the ASX 200 so far in 2021 has been driven by the key cyclical stocks and sectors of the market, particularly financials and resources. …
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AGENDA
26.04.2021
Monthly Agenda April 2021 - International Equities
The benchmark China index (CSI 300) is down some 16% from February’s record. Over the past five weeks or so, the market has been in a ~5% range.…
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AGENDA
26.04.2021
Monthly Agenda April 2021 - Fixed Income
Financial conditions remain ultra-accommodative with Goldman Sachs’s gauge touching fresh lows. The U.S. economy is gaining momentum, with a …
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AGENDA
26.04.2021
Monthly Agenda April 2021 - Alternatives
First quarter private equity exit activity continued the robust trend set in the final quarter of 2020 as the value of exit deal flow totalled $124bn,…
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AGENDA
29.03.2021
Monthly Agenda March 2021 - Life in the post-pan world
Navigating the past twelve months in financial markets has required a deft hand and a clear and organised mind. The speed of travel has been …
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AGENDA
29.03.2021
Monthly Agenda March 2021 - Australian Equities
February's half year reporting season was the strongest in several years, as illustrated by the high level of earnings upgrades to consensus …
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AGENDA
29.03.2021
Monthly Agenda March 2021 - International Equities
Chinese stocks are trailing U.S. peers this year. Economic data out of China have been underwhelming relative to the U.S. The outlook for the U.S. …
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AGENDA
29.03.2021
Monthly Agenda March 2021 - Alternatives
Private market investors continued the trend of allocating greater amounts of capital to top tier experienced fund managers in 2020. The proportion …
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AGENDA
29.03.2021
Monthly Agenda March 2021 - Fixed Income
Bond traders are anticipating a steep return to rate hikes in coming years in defiance of what the Fed keeps saying it will do. The market has a long …
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AGENDA
22.02.2021
Monthly Agenda February 2021 - Reopening, rotation, reflation
Over the course of the last twelve months, the world has progressed through three broad phases of the recovery. The first, occurring in Q2 and Q3 of …
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AGENDA
22.02.2021
Monthly Agenda February 2021 - Australian Equities
Through the COVID crisis, dividends from Australian listed companies were cut by a greater degree than the decline in earnings. This was attributed …
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AGENDA
22.02.2021
Monthly Agenda February 2021 - International Equities
Utilities are a classic bond proxy while banks traditionally get a boost from rising yields and a steepening yield curve. The ratio between banks and …
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AGENDA
22.02.2021
Monthly Agenda February 2021 - Fixed Income
The fixed income story for February was the rise in bond yields. Nominal bond yields are made up of two broad components – real yields and …
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AGENDA
22.02.2021
Monthly Agenda February 2021 - Alternatives
Private Equity (PE) deal flow rebounded strongly in Q4 2020 following a sharp decline in activity around the middle of the year. Fourth quarter …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Global Economy Breakdown
The business cycle troughed in the US in April when 95% of Americans were ordered to stay-at-home. The subsequent economic re-opening coupled with …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Fixed Income
Fixed income assets had a reasonable year in 2020. Bond yields tumbled and credit spreads tightened in response to the unprecedented monetary …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Australian Equities
After an eventful and challenging year for the domestic equity market, we have a constructive view for 2021. Underpinning our confidence is the …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – International Equities
Our base case scenario remains very favourable toward global equities in 2021, particularly the cyclical sectors, small cap companies and emerging …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Alternatives
With central bankers increasingly crowding investors out of public markets, private markets will increasingly become an attractive option. Such an …
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AGENDA
20.01.2021
Agenda 2021 – Asset Class Quilt of Market Returns
2020 will be a year many would prefer to forget but few will. Equity markets swung wildly plunging in March during the early stages of the pandemic, …
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AGENDA
24.11.2020
Monthly Agenda November 2020 - The Emerging Recovery Gets a Tick
The uncertainty of the US election has now faded; the narrative around an effective vaccine has turned more positive allowing thoughts to turn to re-…
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AGENDA
24.11.2020
Monthly Agenda November 2020 - Fixed Income
While Covid-19 continues to spread across the US, neither the stock market nor the yield curve are signalling a material slowdown. Cyclical stocks …
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AGENDA
24.11.2020
Monthly Agenda November 2020 - Alternatives
Alternatives total asset under management are forecast to grow by 60%, or 9.8% annualised equivalent rate, taking total assets to US$17.16tn by 2025. …
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AGENDA
24.11.2020
Monthly Agenda November 2020 - International Equities
Small cap companies managed to extend their rally this month, hitting all-time highs. That bodes well for emerging market assets, given the small-cap …
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AGENDA
24.11.2020
Monthly Agenda November 2020 - Australian Equities
The ASX 200 Accumulation Index has gained more than 10% in the first three weeks of November, turning around the poor performance of the second half …
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AGENDA
29.10.2020
Monthly Agenda October 2020 - Time for Small to Shine?
One of the interesting features of the equity market in October is the relative outperformance of small companies over their larger counterparts.
If …
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AGENDA
29.10.2020
Monthly Agenda October 2020 - Alternatives
With bond yields sitting close to historic lows investors searching for yield are forced to look further out the risk spectrum to achieve the same …
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AGENDA
29.10.2020
Monthly Agenda October 2020 - Fixed Income
The dynamic between U.S. stocks and Treasury yields is once again in focus. Both are rising due to a belief in stimulus-driven reflation. Steeper …
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AGENDA
29.10.2020
Monthly Agenda October 2020 - Australian Equities
There has been an increasingly optimistic outlook for the Australian equity market over the last two months on the back of an expansionary Federal …
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AGENDA
29.10.2020
Monthly Agenda October 2020 - International Equities
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks has shown a burst over the last month and stands at the cusp of hitting a two-year high. China’s role …
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AGENDA
28.09.2020
Monthly Agenda September 2020 - The Age of Administered Markets
The COVID-19 crisis has accelerated many structural trends that were evident previously – e-commerce, the cashless society, remote working - …
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AGENDA
28.09.2020
Monthly Agenda September 2020 - Australian Equities
A potential second wave of capital raisings by Australian companies did not eventuate through August's reporting season. With most large capital …
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AGENDA
28.09.2020
Monthly Agenda September 2020 - International Equities
The message from a sliding AUD/USD is not a happy one for Asian stocks. The Aussie is viewed as a risk barometer, so its rapid slide this week will …
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AGENDA
28.09.2020
Monthly Agenda September 2020 - Fixed Income
Equities have bounced around quite a bit over the past few months. Bond investors have been significantly calmer. Perhaps it’s because most of …
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AGENDA
28.09.2020
Monthly Agenda September 2020 - Alternatives
Sales of new homes rose to their highest levels since September 2006 in the US reaching an annualised figure of just over 1 million ahead of …
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AGENDA
31.08.2020
Monthly Agenda August 2020 – A World of Possibilities
Today’s investment environment is one where there is a world of possibilities but few certainties. Part of the issue, in our view, is that this …
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AGENDA
31.08.2020
Monthly Agenda August 2020 – Alternatives
The integration of ESG into the investment process is becoming a standard part of General Partners (GP) mandates within private markets. The …
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AGENDA
31.08.2020
Monthly Agenda August 2020 – Fixed Income
The Fed is taking an ever-greater role in the U.S. economy and that’s raising concerns it is skewing the playing field to the benefit of larger …
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AGENDA
31.08.2020
Monthly Agenda August 2020 – International Equities
The S&P 500 finished August in the black for a fifth straight month on optimism a vaccine for the virus may be around the corner. If markets are …
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AGENDA
31.08.2020
Monthly Agenda August 2020 – Australian Equities
Forward EPS revisions have varied across the sectors of the Australian market this month, with estimates revised following companies reporting annual …
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AGENDA
03.08.2020
Monthly Agenda July 2020 – 100 Days
This month we focus our attention on the upcoming US presidential election. This is timely for two reasons. First, we are now three months out from …
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AGENDA
03.08.2020
Monthly Agenda July 2020 – Fixed Income
Holders of highly rated bonds have never been paid so little. Yields on U.S. investment-grade corporate debt are a basis point or so wider in the …
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AGENDA
03.08.2020
Monthly Agenda July 2020 – International Equities
Record drop, record recovery, and unprecedented policy action. This year’s extraordinary market environment is tearing apart long-standing …
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AGENDA
03.08.2020
Monthly Agenda July 2020 – Australian Equities
FY20 earnings announcements will be a key focus of the market through August, with companies detailing the impact to earnings related to COVID19, …
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AGENDA
03.08.2020
Monthly Agenda July 2020 – Alternatives
The WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index tracks the performance of companies active in the renewable and low-carbon energy product …
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AGENDA
29.06.2020
Monthly Agenda June 2020 – The Walking Fed
Twenty years ago, “The Simpsons” famously aired an episode of Donald Trump as President of the United States. Ten years ago, the …
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AGENDA
29.06.2020
Monthly Agenda June 2020 – Alternatives
Private markets have grown more than ten-fold since the turn of the century, whilst dry powder currently stands at record levels. Back in 2000 …
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AGENDA
29.06.2020
Monthly Agenda June 2020 – Australian Equities
Forward earnings revisions for the ASX 200 have stabilised since early May, as analysts look towards the prospect of a recovery as the economy …
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AGENDA
29.06.2020
Monthly Agenda June 2020 – Fixed Income
Austria’s mandate to issue another century bond is bound to be lapped up after the runaway success of the 2017 issue. Investors who bought and …
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AGENDA
29.06.2020
Monthly Agenda June 2020 – International Equities
Governments around the world have approved almost $11 trillion to fight the pandemic, and an extra $5 trillion is still in the pipeline, according to …
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AGENDA
25.05.2020
Monthly Agenda May 2020 – Disconnected
The outbreak of the corona crisis has left many of us feeling disconnected from friends, families, and work colleagues. Changes in the way we shop, …
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AGENDA
25.05.2020
Monthly Agenda May 2020 – Alternatives
Iron ore prices have rallied strongly over the last month, up over 15% in May as stronger than expected demand from China coupled with disruptions to …
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AGENDA
25.05.2020
Monthly Agenda May 2020 – Australian Equities
The recovery in global equity markets began in late March as a multitude of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures were announced around the world to …
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AGENDA
25.05.2020
Monthly Agenda May 2020 – International Equities
The correlation between US equities and the US dollar is once again negative, as it was during the last time the US Federal Reserve undertook …
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AGENDA
Monthly Agenda May 2020 – Fixed Income
One of the ironies of the current market is that investors appear to be rewarding the most indebted companies. In a classic ‘credit crisis,&…
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AGENDA
27.04.2020
Monthly Agenda April 2020 - What does it mean when government goes big?
The policy response to COVID-19 has been unprecedented but so has the impact on economic activity. Whilst we are conscious not to extrapolate near …
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AGENDA
10.03.2020
Monthly Agenda March 2020 – Long Live Schumpeter
There is a lot of negative news, views and opinions in financial markets right now. This negativity is rightly occurring on a number of fronts –…
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AGENDA
10.03.2020
Monthly Agenda March 2020 – Australian Equities
The Australian equity market’s performance in February was driven by two primary factors, being half year reporting season and escalating fears …
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AGENDA
10.03.2020
Monthly Agenda March 2020 – Global Equities
Complacency around the coronavirus marked the first half of the month for global equities with most markets up by around 5% in the first two weeks. …
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AGENDA
10.03.2020
Monthly Agenda March 2020 – Currencies and Commodities
Oil prices fell by over 13% in a very volatile month for the commodity as the impact of prolonged business shutdowns and restriction on travel in …
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AGENDA
10.03.2020
Monthly Agenda March 2020 – Fixed Income
Over the month of February bond yields fell across most markets. In Australia, 10-year yields finished down 13 basis points to a record low of just …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Our Views in Brief
Global Growth – We expect global growth to rise in 2020 as an easing of trade tensions puts a floor under global manufacturing activity. This …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – The Dickensian Economy
It has been the best of times and the worst of times for the US economy. While this expansion has been the longest on record at over 126 months, it …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Theme 2: ESG Investing Comes of Age
It began as a niche desire. Originally, socially responsible investing (SRI) was confined to a subset of investors who wanted their investments to …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Theme 3: Let the Fiscal Phoenix Rise
Inequality of wealth within countries has grown in recent decades, particularly in advanced economies. The post-crisis policy response of injecting …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Global Economy Breakdown
United States – Low inflation should keep the US Federal Reserve on hold during 2020. The November presidential election is likely to be a …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Theme 1: A Technology Tipping Point
Since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007, few industries have been left unscathed. This transformational device was a tipping point in turning …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Fixed Income
Fixed income assets had a strong year in 2019. Bond yields tumbled and credit spreads tightened in response to the dovish pivot by the US Federal …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Australian Equities
After a strong year for domestic equity returns, the outlook is for a more benign outcome in 2020. Underpinning this view is the starting point for …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – International Equities
Our base case scenario remains favourable toward global equities in 2020. Within the US, the Federal Reserve still has room to ease policy should it …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Alternatives
We define alternatives to be any asset that is defined by ASIC as a hedge fund or has an illiquidity premium embedded. This makes for a very …
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AGENDA
13.02.2020
Agenda 2020 – Asset Class Quilt of Market Returns
After a dismal 2018, global equity markets roared back to life in 2019 adding some $17 trillion in value over the 12 months. US equities were a …
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