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Agenda

Setting the investment agenda

AGENDA

27.06.2022

One of the observations that we have made since March 2020 is the speed of this business cycle. What is typically a seven-year cycle has been …

AGENDA

27.06.2022

Bigger has been better for the Australian market in 2022. The 50 largest companies on the ASX have experienced more limited losses compared with …

AGENDA

27.06.2022

The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly gauge of mortgage applications showed that applications for a loan to purchase a home were 16% below last …

AGENDA

27.06.2022

Mortgage rates have jumped dramatically. The average rate on a fixed 30-year loan rose 6%, the highest since November 2008.

AGENDA

27.06.2022

High inflation, rising interest rates and war in Ukraine have caused heightened uncertainty causing many PE firms to hold onto the portfolio …

AGENDA

30.05.2022

The structure of the Australian market has been key in leading to strong outperformance of global markets so far in 2022. However, we are cognisant …

AGENDA

30.05.2022

Does the Australian equity market look cheap? This is not necessarily the conclusion you would reach if looking at the premium that investors are …

AGENDA

30.05.2022

2022 so far has seen the US stock market mete out immediate and cruel punishment to companies that don’t yet earn a profit. The sell-off in the …

AGENDA

30.05.2022

Most US Federal Reserve officials agreed at their meeting in May that the central bank needed to tighten in half-point steps over the next couple of …

AGENDA

30.05.2022

Global M&A activity fell in Q1, 2022 compared to the activity seen in the back half of 2021 but were healthy compared to the past five years. …

AGENDA

02.05.2022

The alternatives sector as a collective is diverse and includes such vehicles as hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, private debt and real …

AGENDA

02.05.2022

While many key global equity indices have struggled in the first few months of 2022, the Australian market has performed much better, with the …

AGENDA

02.05.2022

The yuan’s recent fall is the largest seen since the August 2015 devaluation. There are several differences compared to then, but the key …

AGENDA

02.05.2022

The Australian inflation data exceeded expectations in March coming in at 5.1% versus 4.6% expected for the March quarter. That leaves inflation at …

AGENDA

02.05.2022

Real assets funds had a solid 2021, with firms closing on $116.5 billion across 88 funds. This represents an uptick over the total capital raised in …

AGENDA

28.03.2022

The road to a recession is long and winding. The journey typically begins in the bond market, then passes through the equity market, influencing the …

AGENDA

28.03.2022

Despite the negative macro headwinds of tightening monetary policy and geopolitical events, the Australian equity market is one of the few regions in …

AGENDA

28.03.2022

For the first six weeks of 2022, banks were the best-performing sector in Europe. In recent weeks, they’ve been the worst.

AGENDA

28.03.2022

St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard wants to go way back to 1994, the last time the Fed executed a ‘soft’ landing, to model the central …

AGENDA

28.03.2022

Hedge funds participated in a record number (circa 1,400) of private markets deals in 2021, or two times the 2020 level, and nearly three times 2019.

AGENDA

28.02.2022

Uncertainty is at the heart of the stock market slump of recent weeks as investors face difficult questions - when, how fast and by how much will …

AGENDA

28.02.2022

With earnings trends positive in the first two months of 2022, equity market weakness can be explained by a broad decline in valuations across nearly …

AGENDA

28.02.2022

We have the situation now where easing of restrictions is allowing the services side of the economy to open up.  

AGENDA

28.02.2022

Expectations for rate hikes have become ever more front-loaded in the US, with seven seen for this year. But markets now suggest just one hike is on …

AGENDA

28.02.2022

Energy markets were thrown into turmoil late in February as markets began to brace for and then react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the …

AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – Our Views in Brief

Growth will slow in 2022 but settle at an above-trend rate for the second consecutive year. We expect the US to outperform Europe and Japan where the …
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AGENDA

Agenda 2022 – Theme 1: Lower for Longer… Still

The lower for longer theme faced its greatest challenge yet last year. The tussle between labour and capital for the spoils of growth was writ large …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – Australian Equities

Following an impressive, sharp recovery from the depths of the COVID crisis, we anticipate more modest returns for the Australian equity market in …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – International Equities

Investors poured almost US$900 billion into equity funds in 2021. According to the Bank of America, that exceeds the combined total from the past 19 …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – Theme 2: Tech Disruption

Advancements in technology over the last two decades have made an enormous impact on our everyday lives and businesses alike. At the turn of the …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – Theme 3: Net Zero

“1.5°C Alive… but on life support.” The closing remarks to the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow highlighted how …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – Fixed Income

Fixed income had a difficult year in 2021. Australian bond investors experienced the worst returns in over 20 yearswith a negative return for the …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – Alternatives

2021 was another strong year for alternatives with record numbers of deals and an acceleration of longer-term structural trends leading to …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – A Rising Tide Lifts All Chips and Ships

The tide of monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been responsible for lifting all manner of things, not just the price of (micro) chips and ships, …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – Global Economy Breakdown

The size of the US economy is back above its pre-pandemic peak. Fiscal policy swung from being a support for growth to a drag in 2021. That drag will …
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AGENDA

04.02.2022

Agenda 2022 – Asset Class Quilt of Market Returns

Despite the ongoing pandemic with record numbers of COVID cases seen in almost every country, equity markets continued to surge ahead breaking …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Our Views in Brief

The world will go from synchronised crisis in 2020 to synchronised recovery in 2021. Sizeable fiscal and monetary stimulus globally will feed into …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Extremis

2020 was a year of extremes. The COVID-19 crisis took the world’s economic, financial and social infrastructure to the limit. Economies fell …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Theme 1: The Income Challenge

Income investors have never had it so tough. Not only are the yields on everything from term deposits to bank stocks plumbing new lows, but …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Theme 2: COVID-Driven Structural Trends

The spread of COVID-19 across the world through this year had a dramatic impact on everyday life for many people as governments imposed …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Theme 3: Toward Net Zero

In December 2015, 55 countries accounting for 55% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions formally agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees …
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AGENDA

29.11.2021

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues have featured prominently in headlines both domestically and globally over the last few years. …

AGENDA

29.11.2021

Over the last month, Australian growth equities have outperformed value by 6%. The performance has in part been driven by a flattening of the …

AGENDA

29.11.2021

Financial conditions are starting to show signs of tightening and that may become a headwind for stocks. Equities have already been struggling to …

AGENDA

29.11.2021

The returns investors expect to earn after inflation on the world’s most important government bonds have reached a record low. The real yield &…

AGENDA

29.11.2021

The value of all companies going public on US exchanges has passed a record $1 trillion this year driven in part by the sky-high valuations of US …

AGENDA

25.10.2021

The great debate among economists and financial analysts right now is – Inflation: transitory or not? Looking at the news and markets lately …

AGENDA

25.10.2021

There has been an increasingly optimistic outlook for the Australian equity market over the last two months on the back of an expansionary Federal …

AGENDA

25.10.2021

While Chinese equities is still the only market to be in the red on a rolling 12-month basis but there are a few reasons to be slightly more …

AGENDA

25.10.2021

Five-year break-evens have recently pushed out to their highest levels since 2005. Investors are keen to protect themselves against the future …

AGENDA

25.10.2021

Global sustainability/responsible investment strategies have seen strong growth over recent years and include: Socially Responsible Investing (SRI), …

AGENDA

27.09.2021

The global economy has transitioned into mid-cycle over recent quarters, rebounding sharply from the events triggered by the COVID crisis. …

AGENDA

27.09.2021

The recently completed full year reporting season confirmed the rebound in dividends for ASX 200 companies after many were cut or suspended in August …

AGENDA

27.09.2021

The global natural gas crunch is adding a tailwind to energy stocks just as relatively low valuations improve their appeal. The outperformance this …

AGENDA

27.09.2021

US 2-year bond yields jumped up to their highest level since March last year following the US Federal Reserve meeting last week. The move reflects …

AGENDA

27.09.2021

Global Impact Funds have seen strong growth over recent years. Impact vehicles target the full gamut of private market strategies (e.g. private …

AGENDA

23.08.2021

A transition into mid cycle business cycle settings can result in sharp shifts in the drivers of the Australian equity market. With the market tilted …

AGENDA

23.08.2021

The ASX 200 has maintained a trend of strong earnings upgrades since late last year at an average of more than 3% per month. While recent upgrades …

AGENDA

23.08.2021

A sense of foreboding is spreading through emerging markets on concern that China’s slowing recovery and the fast-spreading Delta virus could …

AGENDA

23.08.2021

The currency market is beginning to show signs of growing risk aversion as investors debate a global economic slowdown. The top-performing G-10 …

AGENDA

23.08.2021

The private debt asset class has now surpassed $1 trillion in AUM and continues to quickly approach the size of the public leveraged loan and HY bond …

AGENDA

26.07.2021

As the global economy passes through peak economic growth and peak policy stimulus the business cycle is transitioning from an early to a mid-cycle …

AGENDA

26.07.2021

The first half of 2021 has been notable for the significant rebound in earnings for the ASX 200, with aggregate earnings for the benchmark up an …

AGENDA

26.07.2021

Weaker commodity prices tend to be associated with a stronger US dollar and a weaker Australian dollar. Despite the increased weight to tech stocks …

AGENDA

26.07.2021

Economic growth in China is slowing, reflected in falling bond yields. The June trade numbers sustain the theme of a robust trade surplus, but also …

AGENDA

26.07.2021

Brent crude prices have fallen 9% since the beginning of the month as OPEC+ members finally agreed to production increases for all members of the …

AGENDA

23.06.2021

Bitcoin, blockchain and the world of crypto assets have gone from the obscure and complex realms only discussed by in the know techies to now …

AGENDA

23.06.2021

The outperformance of value stocks in the Australian market has faded in the last few months after five successive months of relative gains compared …

AGENDA

23.06.2021

The US Federal Reserve began the discussion of reducing the amount of monthly bond purchases this month. The move should not have been a surprise …

AGENDA

23.06.2021

The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to meet next month to decide whether to extend the three-year yield target on government bonds and on a third …

AGENDA

23.06.2021

The commodities markets have pulled back in recent weeks as Chinese government entities roll out a swathe of measures aimed at cooling runaway …

AGENDA

25.05.2021

The purpose of the strategic asset allocation (SAA) is to be the foundation upon which the portfolio sits. The foundation needs to be stable, …

AGENDA

25.05.2021

The earnings of the major banks rebounded in the recently completed half year reporting season. This was driven by a sharp recovery in bad debts, …

AGENDA

25.05.2021

Taiwan’s Taiex slid in April. An uptick in virus cases and heavy tech weighing were the spark, huge leveraged positions from retail stoked the …

AGENDA

25.05.2021

Duration is a key vulnerability for bond investors. Duration is a measure of how sensitive the price of a bond is to changes in interest rates. The …

AGENDA

25.05.2021

Copper prices continued their strong run breaking through the $10,000 mark to hit the highest levels in over a decade as supply disruptions in Chile …

AGENDA

26.04.2021

The investment case for China has become more challenging over the past few months. We can point to three reasons for this. First, having led the …

AGENDA

26.04.2021

The return on the ASX 200 so far in 2021 has been driven by the key cyclical stocks and sectors of the market, particularly financials and resources. …

AGENDA

26.04.2021

The benchmark China index (CSI 300) is down some 16% from February’s record. Over the past five weeks or so, the market has been in a ~5% range.…

AGENDA

26.04.2021

Financial conditions remain ultra-accommodative with Goldman Sachs’s gauge touching fresh lows. The U.S. economy is gaining momentum, with a …

AGENDA

26.04.2021

First quarter private equity exit activity continued the robust trend set in the final quarter of 2020 as the value of exit deal flow totalled $124bn,…

AGENDA

29.03.2021

Navigating the past twelve months in financial markets has required a deft hand and a clear and organised mind. The speed of travel has been …

AGENDA

29.03.2021

February's half year reporting season was the strongest in several years, as illustrated by the high level of earnings upgrades to consensus …

AGENDA

29.03.2021

Chinese stocks are trailing U.S. peers this year. Economic data out of China have been underwhelming relative to the U.S. The outlook for the U.S. …

AGENDA

29.03.2021

Private market investors continued the trend of allocating greater amounts of capital to top tier experienced fund managers in 2020. The proportion …

AGENDA

29.03.2021

Bond traders are anticipating a steep return to rate hikes in coming years in defiance of what the Fed keeps saying it will do. The market has a long …

AGENDA

22.02.2021

Over the course of the last twelve months, the world has progressed through three broad phases of the recovery. The first, occurring in Q2 and Q3 of …

AGENDA

22.02.2021

Through the COVID crisis, dividends from Australian listed companies were cut by a greater degree than the decline in earnings. This was attributed …

AGENDA

22.02.2021

Utilities are a classic bond proxy while banks traditionally get a boost from rising yields and a steepening yield curve. The ratio between banks and …

AGENDA

22.02.2021

The fixed income story for February was the rise in bond yields. Nominal bond yields are made up of two broad components – real yields and …

AGENDA

22.02.2021

Private Equity (PE) deal flow rebounded strongly in Q4 2020 following a sharp decline in activity around the middle of the year. Fourth quarter …

AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Global Economy Breakdown

The business cycle troughed in the US in April when 95% of Americans were ordered to stay-at-home. The subsequent economic re-opening coupled with …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Fixed Income

Fixed income assets had a reasonable year in 2020. Bond yields tumbled and credit spreads tightened in response to the unprecedented monetary …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Australian Equities

After an eventful and challenging year for the domestic equity market, we have a constructive view for 2021. Underpinning our confidence is the …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – International Equities

Our base case scenario remains very favourable toward global equities in 2021, particularly the cyclical sectors, small cap companies and emerging …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Alternatives

With central bankers increasingly crowding investors out of public markets, private markets will increasingly become an attractive option. Such an …
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AGENDA

20.01.2021

Agenda 2021 – Asset Class Quilt of Market Returns

2020 will be a year many would prefer to forget but few will. Equity markets swung wildly plunging in March during the early stages of the pandemic, …
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AGENDA

24.11.2020

The uncertainty of the US election has now faded; the narrative around an effective vaccine has turned more positive allowing thoughts to turn to re-…

AGENDA

24.11.2020

While Covid-19 continues to spread across the US, neither the stock market nor the yield curve are signalling a material slowdown. Cyclical stocks …

AGENDA

24.11.2020

Alternatives total asset under management are forecast to grow by 60%, or 9.8% annualised equivalent rate, taking total assets to US$17.16tn by 2025. …

AGENDA

24.11.2020

Small cap companies managed to extend their rally this month, hitting all-time highs. That bodes well for emerging market assets, given the small-cap …

AGENDA

24.11.2020

The ASX 200 Accumulation Index has gained more than 10% in the first three weeks of November, turning around the poor performance of the second half …

AGENDA

29.10.2020

One of the interesting features of the equity market in October is the relative outperformance of small companies over their larger counterparts. If …

AGENDA

29.10.2020

With bond yields sitting close to historic lows investors searching for yield are forced to look further out the risk spectrum to achieve the same …

AGENDA

29.10.2020

The dynamic between U.S. stocks and Treasury yields is once again in focus. Both are rising due to a belief in stimulus-driven reflation. Steeper …

AGENDA

29.10.2020

There has been an increasingly optimistic outlook for the Australian equity market over the last two months on the back of an expansionary Federal …

AGENDA

29.10.2020

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks has shown a burst over the last month and stands at the cusp of hitting a two-year high. China’s role …

AGENDA

28.09.2020

The COVID-19 crisis has accelerated many structural trends that were evident previously – e-commerce, the cashless society, remote working - …

AGENDA

28.09.2020

A potential second wave of capital raisings by Australian companies did not eventuate through August's reporting season. With most large capital …

AGENDA

28.09.2020

The message from a sliding AUD/USD is not a happy one for Asian stocks. The Aussie is viewed as a risk barometer, so its rapid slide this week will …

AGENDA

28.09.2020

Equities have bounced around quite a bit over the past few months. Bond investors have been significantly calmer. Perhaps it’s because most of …

AGENDA

28.09.2020

Sales of new homes rose to their highest levels since September 2006 in the US reaching an annualised figure of just over 1 million ahead of …

AGENDA

31.08.2020

Today’s investment environment is one where there is a world of possibilities but few certainties. Part of the issue, in our view, is that this …

AGENDA

31.08.2020

The integration of ESG into the investment process is becoming a standard part of General Partners (GP) mandates within private markets. The …

AGENDA

31.08.2020

The Fed is taking an ever-greater role in the U.S. economy and that’s raising concerns it is skewing the playing field to the benefit of larger …

AGENDA

31.08.2020

The S&P 500 finished August in the black for a fifth straight month on optimism a vaccine for the virus may be around the corner. If markets are …

AGENDA

31.08.2020

Forward EPS revisions have varied across the sectors of the Australian market this month, with estimates revised following companies reporting annual …

AGENDA

03.08.2020

This month we focus our attention on the upcoming US presidential election. This is timely for two reasons. First, we are now three months out from …

AGENDA

03.08.2020

Holders of highly rated bonds have never been paid so little. Yields on U.S. investment-grade corporate debt are a basis point or so wider in the …

AGENDA

03.08.2020

Record drop, record recovery, and unprecedented policy action. This year’s extraordinary market environment is tearing apart long-standing …

AGENDA

03.08.2020

FY20 earnings announcements will be a key focus of the market through August, with companies detailing the impact to earnings related to COVID19, …

AGENDA

03.08.2020

The WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index tracks the performance of companies active in the renewable and low-carbon energy product …

AGENDA

29.06.2020

Twenty years ago, “The Simpsons” famously aired an episode of Donald Trump as President of the United States. Ten years ago, the …

AGENDA

29.06.2020

Private markets have grown more than ten-fold since the turn of the century, whilst dry powder currently stands at record levels. Back in 2000 …

AGENDA

29.06.2020

Forward earnings revisions for the ASX 200 have stabilised since early May, as analysts look towards the prospect of a recovery as the economy …

AGENDA

29.06.2020

Austria’s mandate to issue another century bond is bound to be lapped up after the runaway success of the 2017 issue. Investors who bought and …

AGENDA

29.06.2020

Governments around the world have approved almost $11 trillion to fight the pandemic, and an extra $5 trillion is still in the pipeline, according to …

AGENDA

25.05.2020

Monthly Agenda May 2020 – Disconnected

The outbreak of the corona crisis has left many of us feeling disconnected from friends, families, and work colleagues. Changes in the way we shop, …
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AGENDA

25.05.2020

Iron ore prices have rallied strongly over the last month, up over 15% in May as stronger than expected demand from China coupled with disruptions to …

AGENDA

25.05.2020

The recovery in global equity markets began in late March as a multitude of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures were announced around the world to …

AGENDA

25.05.2020

The correlation between US equities and the US dollar is once again negative, as it was during the last time the US Federal Reserve undertook …

AGENDA

One of the ironies of the current market is that investors appear to be rewarding the most indebted companies. In a classic ‘credit crisis,&…

AGENDA

27.04.2020

The policy response to COVID-19 has been unprecedented but so has the impact on economic activity. Whilst we are conscious not to extrapolate near …

AGENDA

10.03.2020

There is a lot of negative news, views and opinions in financial markets right now. This negativity is rightly occurring on a number of fronts –…

AGENDA

10.03.2020

The Australian equity market’s performance in February was driven by two primary factors, being half year reporting season and escalating fears …

AGENDA

10.03.2020

Complacency around the coronavirus marked the first half of the month for global equities with most markets up by around 5% in the first two weeks. …

AGENDA

10.03.2020

Oil prices fell by over 13% in a very volatile month for the commodity as the impact of prolonged business shutdowns and restriction on travel in …

AGENDA

10.03.2020

Over the month of February bond yields fell across most markets. In Australia, 10-year yields finished down 13 basis points to a record low of just …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

Global Growth – We expect global growth to rise in 2020 as an easing of trade tensions puts a floor under global manufacturing activity. This …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

It has been the best of times and the worst of times for the US economy. While this expansion has been the longest on record at over 126 months, it …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

It began as a niche desire. Originally, socially responsible investing (SRI) was confined to a subset of investors who wanted their investments to …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

Inequality of wealth within countries has grown in recent decades, particularly in advanced economies. The post-crisis policy response of injecting …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

United States – Low inflation should keep the US Federal Reserve on hold during 2020. The November presidential election is likely to be a …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

Since Apple released the first iPhone in 2007, few industries have been left unscathed. This transformational device was a tipping point in turning …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

Fixed income assets had a strong year in 2019. Bond yields tumbled and credit spreads tightened in response to the dovish pivot by the US Federal …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

After a strong year for domestic equity returns, the outlook is for a more benign outcome in 2020. Underpinning this view is the starting point for …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

Our base case scenario remains favourable toward global equities in 2020. Within the US, the Federal Reserve still has room to ease policy should it …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

We define alternatives to be any asset that is defined by ASIC as a hedge fund or has an illiquidity premium embedded. This makes for a very …

AGENDA

13.02.2020

After a dismal 2018, global equity markets roared back to life in 2019 adding some $17 trillion in value over the 12 months. US equities were a …

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